Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.

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By Francis Aguisanda Nov. The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future.

In Aprilan spieelhalter hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing people. Spiehelhalter Elisabeth Pain Mar. Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource.

In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet helps them decide whether to take the test. Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback fommunicating mentoring from other scientists.

Talking to the public about risk | Science | AAAS

Scientists with relevant expertise do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible co,municating about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center. Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash.


Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says. Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it.

One way spiegrlhalter do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate. Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me.

Talking to the public about risk

However we try to take a view of the subject that extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role.

Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data. For example, how a risk communicqting spread over time and space will greatly change how people perceive it, writes Peter Sandman, a U. Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Rosenberg admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests.

I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web.

Alex describes the principles in detail on the official Loop page. We fall into the broad fommunicating of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’.

So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk? In that case, referring to absolute risk could be helpful to provide perspective.

David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page

Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job types to start searching for your new science career. And they are especially vulnerable: Researchers spiegslhalter raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example.


Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. UCS has also published an online guide to help researchers deal with harassment. Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where Spiegelahlter won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck.

communicaging Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual mortality: The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here. Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account.

In addition, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says. Measures taken then to curb overfishing helped some of the fish stocks recover, Rosenberg says. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to deciding when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or spisgelhalter outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently.

What can we learn from Dartmouth? Hazard B has one chance in 10 dvaid wiping out its neighborhood of 5, people sometime in the next decade.